IDNEWSNOW.COM, Jakarta – There is almost no doubt that Indonesia will fall into recession, economist says. The projection of said predicament is based on September’s consumer price index, which suffered a deflation throughout Q3/2020.
Adrian Panggabean, a chief economist at CIMB Niaga, said that he had concluded Indonesia will step into recession since the first quarter of 2020.
“And I estimate that it will remain in the recession zone until the first quarter of 2021,” he said as quoted by Bisnis.com, Thursday, October 1, 2020.
Adrian explained that the non-stopping deflation in Q3 / 2020 confirmed the very weak demand. “It brings me to an estimate that economic growth in the third quarter of 2020 will settle between -3 and -3.5 percent,” he said.
Statistics Indonesia, the central statistics agency (BPS), reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) in September 2020 experienced deflation of 0.05 percent. It brings this year’s CPI to a 0.89 percent deflation, year to date.
Based on the 90 cities’ consumer price indexes, 56 experienced deflation and 34 cities experienced inflation. The highest deflation is in Timika with 0.83 percent and the highest inflation is in Gunung Sitoli with 1.0 percent.
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BISNIS